Executive summary
Deadly wildfires in South Korea during 2025 were driven by a combination of high temperatures, dry conditions and strong winds. World Weather Attribution analysis finds that human-caused climate change roughly doubled the likelihood of the fire-prone weather conditions that fuelled these events. The study highlights how climate change is increasing wildfire risk in regions not traditionally associated with large fires, exposing gaps in preparedness and land management.
What happened
In 2025, several wildfires broke out across parts of South Korea following periods of unusually warm, dry and windy weather. Fires spread rapidly, affecting forested areas close to towns and cities, leading to fatalities, evacuations and damage to homes, infrastructure and natural ecosystems.
The fires occurred during a period when vegetation was particularly dry, allowing flames to spread quickly and making suppression difficult. Emergency services faced challenging conditions as multiple fires burned simultaneously.
What the attribution analysis found
World Weather Attribution finds that climate change increased the likelihood of the hot, dry and windy conditions that contributed to the wildfires. Rising temperatures increased evaporation, drying soils and vegetation and creating more flammable landscapes.
The analysis shows that similar combinations of weather conditions would have been significantly less likely in a pre-industrial climate. In today’s climate, such fire-conducive conditions are about twice as likely, substantially increasing wildfire risk.
While ignition sources vary, the study makes clear that climate change is influencing the severity and spread of fires once they occur.
Changing wildfire risk in East Asia
A key finding of the study is that wildfire risk is expanding into regions where large fires have historically been less common. Forest management practices, urban expansion into forested areas and limited experience with extreme wildfire behaviour further increased vulnerability.
The fires illustrate how climate change is reshaping risk profiles, requiring adaptation in regions not traditionally prioritised for wildfire preparedness.
How climate attribution fits into wildfire risk reporting
Climate attribution helps clarify how climate change alters the background conditions that enable wildfires, even when human activity determines ignition. This distinction is critical for understanding why wildfire impacts are increasing despite advances in firefighting capacity.
For risk reporting, attribution supports reassessing wildfire exposure using forward-looking climate conditions rather than past fire history alone.
Why this matters for organisations
For governments, utilities, insurers and businesses operating in South Korea, the findings highlight emerging wildfire risks to power networks, transport infrastructure, industrial facilities and communities. Repeated fire events increase the likelihood of disruption, asset damage and rising insurance losses.
How to use this in your own risk work
Organisations should integrate climate-adjusted fire weather indicators into risk assessments, review exposure of assets near forested areas and strengthen early warning and response planning. Expanding wildfire preparedness beyond traditionally high-risk regions will be essential as warming continues.
Source
World Weather Attribution (2025). Climate change made weather conditions leading to deadly South Korean wildfires about twice as likely.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-south-korean-wildfires-about-twice-as-likely/