Executive summary
Communities across Colombia and Venezuela experienced damaging weather impacts in 2025 amid changing and uncertain rainfall patterns. World Weather Attribution analysis shows that while long-term rainfall trends remain mixed and uncertain, growing exposure and vulnerability are significantly increasing the risk of harm. The study emphasises that climate resilience in the region must address both evolving climate hazards and rapid increases in exposure driven by urbanisation, land-use change and socio-economic pressures.
What happened
In 2025, parts of Colombia and Venezuela experienced episodes of heavy rainfall that led to flooding and landslides, alongside periods of below-average rainfall that stressed water resources and agriculture. These contrasting conditions affected both rural and urban areas, disrupting transport, damaging homes and impacting food production.
In several locations, development in flood-prone areas and on unstable slopes increased exposure to rainfall-related hazards. Limited infrastructure resilience and constrained emergency response capacity further amplified impacts, particularly for low-income communities.
What the attribution analysis found
World Weather Attribution finds that the influence of climate change on rainfall in northern South America is complex. The analysis highlights substantial uncertainty in long-term rainfall trends, with some areas experiencing increases in heavy rainfall while others show weak or mixed signals.
Despite this uncertainty, the study finds evidence that extreme rainfall events are becoming more intense when they occur, consistent with a warming atmosphere holding more moisture. This means that even without clear trends in average rainfall, the risk of damaging extremes is increasing.
The analysis underscores that uncertainty in climate signals does not equate to low risk, particularly where exposure and vulnerability are high.
Exposure and vulnerability as key risk drivers
A central conclusion of the study is that growing exposure is a dominant driver of risk. Rapid urban expansion, informal settlements and deforestation have increased the number of people and assets located in hazard-prone areas.
In both Colombia and Venezuela, social and economic vulnerability limited the ability of communities to prepare for, respond to and recover from extreme weather, magnifying impacts regardless of the precise climate signal.
How climate attribution fits into rainfall risk reporting
Climate attribution helps clarify what is known and unknown about changing rainfall risks. In this case, attribution highlights that while uncertainty remains around average rainfall trends, the physics of warming strongly supports increasing intensity of heavy rainfall events.
For risk reporting, this reinforces the importance of planning for extremes even when long-term trends are uncertain.
Why this matters for organisations
For governments, infrastructure operators, insurers and development agencies, the findings demonstrate that climate risk in Colombia and Venezuela cannot be assessed using climate trends alone. Exposure growth and vulnerability are critical determinants of loss, particularly for flooding and landslides.
Relying on historical experience or average rainfall metrics risks underestimating the true scale of potential impacts.
How to use this in your own risk work
Organisations should combine climate-adjusted extreme rainfall scenarios with detailed exposure and vulnerability mapping. Stress-testing assets and operations against plausible extremes, rather than relying on trend certainty, will be essential. Investment in resilient infrastructure, land-use planning and social resilience can substantially reduce risk, even under uncertain climate signals.
Source
World Weather Attribution (2025). Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-exposure-and-uncertain-rainfall-trends-highlight-the-critical-need-for-climate-resilience-in-colombia-and-venezuela/