Executive summary
Deadly wildfires across Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece in 2025 were driven by extreme fire weather conditions that were made far more likely by human-caused climate change. World Weather Attribution analysis finds that high temperatures, very low humidity and strong winds combined to create conditions highly conducive to fast-spreading and intense fires. The study concludes that climate change increased the likelihood of these fire-prone weather conditions by around a factor of ten, sharply raising the risk of catastrophic wildfire impacts across the eastern Mediterranean.
What happened
During the 2025 fire season, multiple wildfires broke out across Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece under conditions of extreme heat, dry vegetation and strong winds. Fires spread rapidly, overwhelming suppression efforts in several locations and leading to fatalities, widespread evacuations and extensive damage to homes, infrastructure and ecosystems.
The fires occurred in regions where communities, tourism infrastructure and transport networks are closely interwoven with fire-prone landscapes. In some areas, simultaneous fires stretched emergency response capacity and complicated evacuation and firefighting efforts.
What the attribution analysis found
World Weather Attribution finds that climate change played a decisive role in creating the extreme fire weather conditions observed. Rising temperatures increased evaporation and dried soils and vegetation, while heatwaves became more frequent and intense.
The analysis shows that the combination of heat, dryness and wind observed during the fires would have been extremely unlikely in a pre-industrial climate. In today’s climate, such conditions are around ten times more likely, substantially increasing the probability of large and dangerous wildfires.
While ignition sources vary, the study makes clear that climate change is strongly influencing the severity and spread of fires once they occur.
Compounding factors and limits to response
Beyond the weather itself, the study highlights how land-use patterns, fuel accumulation and development in wildland-urban interface areas increased exposure to wildfire impacts. In several cases, fires spread into populated areas where evacuation options were limited.
The intensity of fires under extreme weather conditions also reduced the effectiveness of suppression, illustrating the limits of emergency response when fire behaviour is driven by climate-amplified extremes.
How climate attribution fits into wildfire risk reporting
Climate attribution clarifies how climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of fire-conducive weather, even where ignition remains human-driven. This helps explain why wildfire impacts are escalating despite advances in firefighting technology and response planning.
For risk reporting, attribution evidence supports reassessing wildfire risk using forward-looking climate conditions rather than historical fire frequency alone.
Why this matters for organisations
For governments, utilities, insurers and tourism-dependent businesses across the eastern Mediterranean, wildfire risk is now a systemic threat. Repeated high-impact fire seasons increase the likelihood of prolonged disruption, asset damage and rising insurance costs.
How to use this in your own risk work
Organisations should incorporate climate-adjusted fire weather scenarios into risk assessments, evaluate exposure in wildland-urban interface zones and plan for longer and more intense fire seasons. Strengthening early warning, evacuation planning and fuel management will be critical to reducing future impacts.
Source
World Weather Attribution (2025). Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-wildfires-in-turkiye-cyprus-and-greece-made-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/