Executive summary
Deadly flooding in Kinshasa during 2025 occurred after periods of heavy rainfall that were not exceptional by historical standards. World Weather Attribution analysis finds that while climate change may influence rainfall extremes over time, the primary drivers of the disaster were high vulnerability and exposure. Rapid urban growth, settlement in flood-prone areas and limited drainage infrastructure transformed heavy rainfall into a major humanitarian event, highlighting the critical role of non-climatic risk factors.
What happened
In 2025, Kinshasa experienced episodes of heavy rainfall that led to severe flooding across multiple neighbourhoods. Rivers overtopped their banks and surface water accumulated rapidly in low-lying urban areas. Homes were inundated, transport links were disrupted and essential services were affected, resulting in significant loss of life and displacement.
Many of the hardest-hit communities were located in informal settlements on floodplains or along poorly managed waterways. Limited drainage capacity and blocked channels caused water to accumulate quickly, leaving little time for evacuation.
What the attribution analysis found
World Weather Attribution finds that the rainfall triggering the floods was heavy but not unusual compared with historical records. Unlike many other events studied in 2025, there was no strong attribution signal indicating that climate change substantially increased the likelihood of the specific rainfall amounts observed.
However, the analysis emphasises that the absence of an exceptional rainfall signal does not imply low risk. Instead, it highlights that severe impacts can occur even under relatively typical weather conditions when exposure and vulnerability are high.
Vulnerability and exposure as dominant risk drivers
A central conclusion of the study is that vulnerability and exposure were the primary determinants of the disaster. Rapid population growth, informal housing, inadequate drainage and limited waste management increased flood risk substantially.
Socio-economic constraints limited the ability of residents to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding. As a result, rainfall that might have caused limited disruption elsewhere led to catastrophic outcomes in Kinshasa.
How climate attribution fits into flood risk reporting
Climate attribution helps distinguish between meteorological drivers and the factors that convert weather events into disasters. In this case, attribution clarifies that while climate change is an important long-term risk factor, current losses were driven mainly by exposure and vulnerability.
This distinction is essential for effective risk management and investment prioritisation.
Why this matters for organisations
For governments, development agencies, insurers and infrastructure operators, the findings demonstrate that reducing disaster risk requires addressing social and infrastructural vulnerability alongside climate hazards. Focusing solely on changes in rainfall intensity risks overlooking the most immediate drivers of loss.
How to use this in your own risk work
Organisations should combine climate hazard assessments with detailed analysis of exposure and vulnerability. Investments in drainage, land-use planning, waste management and inclusive urban development can dramatically reduce flood impacts, even before climate signals intensify further.
Source
World Weather Attribution (2025). High vulnerability and exposure main drivers behind Kinshasa’s deadly floods following heavy, but not unusual, rainfall.