Executive summary
Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba in 2025 as a powerful tropical cyclone, causing severe wind damage, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. World Weather Attribution analysis finds that human-caused climate change increased the intensity of the storm’s rainfall and wind, pushing impacts beyond levels many adaptation measures were designed to withstand. The study highlights that while preparedness reduced loss of life, there are clear limits to adaptation when extreme storms intensify in a warming climate.
What happened
In 2025, Hurricane Melissa developed rapidly over warm ocean waters before tracking across Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The storm brought intense rainfall, destructive winds and storm surge, leading to flooding, landslides and widespread damage to homes, infrastructure and agriculture.
Despite improvements in forecasting, early warnings and evacuation procedures, the scale of impacts was significant. Power outages, transport disruption and damage to coastal infrastructure affected large numbers of people, with recovery expected to take months in some areas.
What the attribution analysis found
The attribution analysis concludes that climate change increased the intensity of Hurricane Melissa’s rainfall and wind. Warmer sea surface temperatures provided additional energy to the storm, allowing it to intensify more rapidly and sustain higher peak wind speeds.
Increased atmospheric moisture also led to heavier rainfall, raising flood risk and triggering landslides, particularly in mountainous terrain. The analysis shows that while climate change did not cause the storm, it made its most damaging characteristics more severe.
Uncertainty remains around the precise magnitude of wind speed changes, but the direction of influence from warming is clear and consistent with broader evidence on tropical cyclones.
Limits of adaptation
A central message of the study is that adaptation can reduce harm but cannot eliminate risk. Early warning systems and emergency response measures helped limit casualties, demonstrating the value of preparedness.
However, infrastructure and housing standards were often insufficient to withstand the intensified rainfall, wind and storm surge. In some locations, coastal defences were overtopped and drainage systems failed under extreme rainfall, illustrating the limits of existing adaptation strategies.
How climate attribution fits into storm risk reporting
Climate attribution clarifies how climate change is altering the characteristics of tropical cyclones, even when storm frequency remains uncertain. By showing that rainfall and intensity are increasing, attribution provides critical context for reassessing storm risk beyond historical experience.
For storm-exposed regions, this means that past storms may no longer represent upper bounds for future impacts.
Why this matters for organisations
For governments, utilities, insurers and businesses operating in the Caribbean, the findings underscore rising exposure to high-impact storms. Energy systems, transport networks, tourism assets and supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to storms that exceed historical design assumptions.
How to use this in your own risk work
Organisations should review storm resilience standards using climate-adjusted intensity assumptions, stress-test assets against higher rainfall and wind thresholds, and plan for extended recovery periods. Investment in adaptation remains essential, but planning should also recognise residual risk that cannot be fully mitigated.
Source
World Weather Attribution (2025). Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa, testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-enhanced-intensity-of-hurricane-melissa-testing-limits-of-adaptation-in-jamaica-and-eastern-cuba/